Q&A About ‘Realistic Simulations’ and their Effectiveness

July 10, 2009

I was asked recently to answer several questions about simulations for a colleague working through an academic program related to the Fire Service.  I figured I might as well share my views with others because I think there are a lot of interesting discussions possible.

1. Do you feel realistic simulations are effective teaching tool for improving decision making? Why or why not?

Getting right to the bottom line, throwing caution into the wind regarding loaded, assumption-laden words like “realistic”, “effective”, and “simulation”, I do believe that simulations can be used effectively in training for improving decision making, for example, when the environment, available interactions, and instruction adequately enable the student to develop or practice an effective process.  But I also believe that simulations can be used ineffectively and actually hurt decision making.  For example, putting students on their first day of flight training into full-motion flight simulators is not a good idea, for several reasons, including that it is not the right tool for teaching what the student needs to acquire at his or her current level of training.

Without delving into the question of what constitutes a simulation (many people try to address this broad concept, but I don’t think it fits neatly into one definition), I think that the plain meaning of the question states the important part of the answer: simulation is a tool, and thus by itself cannot improve decision-making.  It depends on the skills one is trying to teach or demonstrate, and of course on the instructor (live or programmed).

I like to say that developing good simulation-based training foremost is about developing good training, and therefore about how appropriate the stimuli and resources are to the intended outcome(s), rather than purely about fidelity to the system in question.  The ultimate goal with good simulation-based training, or any training, for that matter, is to capture the “right” level of detail—detail in the environment, interactivity, etc. appropriate for the skills being transferred/taught. Therefore, to determine the “right” level of detail, one must articulate the training objectives to identify the relevant clues in the environment and the range of likely interactions and consequences.  Fidelity/faithfulness to real-world systems plays an important part when the clues require that correspondence.

I think a lot of money and time are wasted on the innocuous and unproven assumption that good simulation is about precision to the real-world counterpart.  That is not to say fidelity is unimportant, only that fidelity may not be so crucial to good training as simulation developers would have one believe.

2. Do you feel that simulations can improve intuitive decision making?

I think that all practice can reinforce making decisions, by virtue of the fact one is presented with the situations repeatedly, but I don’t believe simulations can necessarily improve any intuitions.  At best it can reinforce the action-consequences that one witnesses in a simulation, to help prepare for those possibilities, but it is debatable whether this is all good—can a simulation pigeonhole someone’s thinking inadvertently, if the student runs up against a false assumption that is embodied in the simulation?  In that case, the simulation is actually providing negative training.

When people talk about simulations, particularly computer or mathematical simulations, without having the experience of developing them, they get a false sense of security about the simulation.  Stripping it down to its essence, a simulation embodies some model of the real-world.  Every model has an assumption—if it did not, then it would be the real thing itself!

This sounds academic, but the important point is that all simulations have assumptions, and as a trainer, you want make sure that students are operating with assumptions are that are compatible with the assumptions of the model.  Therefore, you as an instructor need to be comfortable with the range of predictions that the simulation will make based on the student interaction.  This points back to my argument that you have to understand your training objectives very well, so that you allow the student to stay comfortably in the range of correct predictions of the system (correct in the sense of what you want the student to infer from the system’s behavior).

3. Based on your experience what are the limitations of simulation training?

If all simulations (models) have assumptions, then it stands to reason that all simulations have limitations as they violate their assumptions.  Regarding training, it’s easy to say that limitations show up when the type of simulation does not capture the “right” level of detail for the skill(s) being taught.  For example, we originally thought that we could help teach correct search skills (right or left-handed searches) using our photograph-based command simulation system.  We realized, once we put the scenarios into practice, however, that teaching skills based on realistic navigation was a limitation of our approach to scenario building—the constrained stimuli presented through the discrete photographs did not provide adequate physical orientation when moving to overcome the artificiality of the discrete movement.

In a positive example, we believe our system is ideally suited to teaching how to “read smoke” because we spent a great deal of time putting the elements, or clues, into the way in which the smoke can be modeled and placed.  Most other fire training programs don’t invest in the details to make practicing smoke reading as effective in our system.

I think an important point about limitations of simulation training has to do with issues outside of modeling technique—if simulation is applied as a cure-all, with less regard for the training problem/issue to address than a desire to make the training like the real world, then the simulation can limit the effectiveness of the skill transfer.  One of my favorite phrases I use all the time is from Thomas Gilbert.  In his talks about addressing performance issues, he coined the term (I believe) “worthy” performance problems.  What I glean from this is that there are many problems that can be addressed with training, and simulations as a part of training, but good training should focus on solving the problems that make a difference to worthwhile performance.  Therefore, if you value a technological approach over really understanding what you are trying to teach, and crafting the model to capture the right level of detail, you could be limiting the effectiveness of training by introducing details that detract from the training objectives, even if you are using very precise analogies to the real world.

An obvious example is that if you are performing maintenance on some components of a device behind a panel, and you first have to expose the panel by undoing clasps or unscrewing support screws, you can make training tedious if you require the student to turn the screws just as they would in the real world.  If the act of turning the screws is not relevant to the skills you need to teach, you are making the training tedious, which can interfere with the skill training process you are teaching.

4. What are the benefits of simulation training?

In a nutshell, I think that practicing appropriate skills in a hands-on, similar context/approach to real-life situations can introduce, reinforce, and evaluate conformance with proper procedures.  Therefore, simulation training can be better than conventional training methods (both classroom and field) in the simulations are

  • Safer to conduct
  • Often less costly in the long run
  • Repeatable
  • Measurable
  • May be easier to deploy
  • May provide more varied environments in which to apply skills.

Some types of ‘learning to perform’ can be accomplished with carefully-constructed questions (I really like the work of Will Thalheimer [http://www.work-learning.com/] in this respect), since the setup or question itself is a model of the context (in a limited form, but nonetheless a model that may be appropriate if it expresses the right level of detail).

I am obviously also a huge fan of simulation for practicing ‘hard skills’ (in contrast with ‘soft skills’), namely with equipment, which is why I am also surprised that there doesn’t seem to be more of it, especially in the B2B arena.  I think the technology has arrived long ago to provide valuable experiences, but still the perceived costs are high, especially as the simulation community (the ones who develop simulations) tends to focus on fidelity over tuning to training objectives.

5. How can simulation training be improved?

I don’t see technological limitations to most types of training problems, but I think that instructors by in large do not know how to teach with simulations, that is, learning how to meaningfully engage students.  That may be why many who talk about simulations (without understanding how they’re built) tend to be conservative about how simulations should perform (“make it perform like in the real world”).  This tends to produce bloated simulations that may be overly complicated by virtue of the fact they use the real-world situation as the gold standard.

6. Based on your experience using educational and simulations techniques, how do people make decisions under stress? Intuitively or analytically? Please explain.

I don’t have the experience to answer this regarding stressful situations, except to state the obvious reference to Gary Klein’s work on Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) making.

7. What do you feel is the future of simulation training?

My answer to #5 addresses where I think it can be improved, which I hope is the future.  I also believe that as simulations are applied in more disciplines, we will get better case studies and processes for what works or does not work in those situations.  Certainly there will be better, easier tools for developing simulations, but I think real progress will occur in a field when the training process and integration of simulation is laid out more clearly, typically through a process of “we did it this way and here were the deficiencies, and here is how we learned to do it better.”

In the Fire Service, I think Brunacini’s and Abbott’s Command Training Center in Phoenix is a wonderful example of really nailing the training process using simulation.  People are drawn to the tools, and many software sales have been made as a result of viewing their setup, but the genius is in how they have codified the training process, through years of iterative development.  While the software has enabled them to explore training methods beyond conventional means, its deficiencies (and all software has deficiencies) may have constrained their exploration.

While it’s not relevant to the Fire Service, since I brought up equipment training, I see the future of simulation training stepping over the line of training into product marketing.  There is a commonly-used cliché that “advertising is education,” but I think we still have a lot to explore in how product marketing and training interact using simulation.

8. Do you see simulation applications for the fire service potentially improving incident command decision making?

I am very biased here because I am out selling a simulation platform for the Fire Service (and other public and private safety organizations).  I definitely believe it can improve incident command decision making, so long as it is applied in the context of teaching good practice.  In simple terms, I see simulation applications enabling organizations to train and evaluate adherence to accepted practice, and potentially exploring what was “accepted practice” to devise better practices.  For example, SOP’s are often devised based on what the authors believe should be accepted practice, along with an integration of local, state, and national standards.  But SOP’s are rarely tested until something bad happens.  Simulations have a great potential for virtual ‘field testing’ of SOP’s, and ultimately devising new ones.

For several years, we’ve been selling our system on the premise that one can create scenarios to practice and evaluate real-life situations for command, strategy, tactics, and communication.  Interestingly enough, even the immersive, 3-D systems that claim to be more realistic have these same objectives, and I have yet to hear exactly why their approach, given the extra technological burdens, contributes meaningfully more to any of these goals.

However, the issue of SOP adherence has led to our current focus of research, which is using simulation to help organizations answer the basic question “are my company officers and battalion chiefs following SOP’s”, in a performance-based way.


Product simulation for cross-selling and up-selling

June 22, 2009

I just ran across an interesting blog post entitled “Measuring and Improving Cross-Sell and Upsell” at GetElastic.com.  It gives fascinating numbers and insights about existing online retailers’ current abilities to cross-sell and up-sell products.  What struck me is how well product simulation covers all of the take-away messages:

  1. “we think you’ll also love…” — by putting products in real-world situations, you can expose customers to related products they may not have considered, just like the “we think you’ll also love…” items currently tagged onto shopping cart items.
  2. Quoting Mike Svatek’s webinar of effective merchandising on Elastic Path, the post says cross-selling works well for “considered purchases”, the ones with higher cost and higher involvement.  The consumer who uses simulations to evaluate products will almost certainly be ones prepared for higher involvement in the procurement process (whether in B2B or B2C) — natural candidates for cross-sales (and the consumer will likely be appreciative of the relevance of related products or services).
  3. Again quoted from Mike Svatek’s webinar, the post says up-sells work best when there is “a small difference in dollar value or a small nominal percentage difference – 10-20% max. You need to show some incremental value for the increase in price.”  Including optional product features in the simulation is a great way to lead consumers to the complete product they need.

Simulation as Resilient Job according to NY Times

June 16, 2009

I just came across an article from the New York Times entitled “In Simulation Work, the Demand is Real“.  The article is from a feature about emerging job markets, and basically implies that there is a good demand for jobs in simulation.  Great!

In general, the article is fairly innocuous but it leads one to believe that the interesting areas of simulation are about modeling more and more complex systems  (for example, it quotes a scientist at AEgis Technologies as saying “we solved most of the problems that one person can do a long time ago”).  I think it perpetuates the myth that simulation advances and benefits only are interesting for high-end, complex systems.  I really believe that simulation of more mundane processes and equipment has a huge potential impact that is not being realized or accomplished today, because simulation is often assumed to be complex and expensive.

Furthermore, the article suggests that the validity of the science behind simulation is almost a given, it’s just computing power which is lagging.  Again, a big simplification.  All models have assumptions.  I have seen firsthand how simulation developers will try to stick models together without understanding that the assumptions underlying the models may be inconsistent.

I don’t want to be too critical because I understand the article is about high-end simulation, but I would have liked to see a nod to more mainstream applications of simulation.


New Entry into Virtual Event Field – Jack Morton

June 14, 2009

I just saw a press release about Jack Morton Worldwide creating a new “virtual experience platform”:

http://www.marketing-interactive.com/news/13349

Anyone know how it is different from the other virtual show platforms?


Update…Getting Close to Clearing My Schedule

May 26, 2009

It’s been a hectic past few months as I’ve been working on small projects and not getting a chance to get my head above water.  It’s been hard to make progress on advancing technical work when there is so much business organization, marketing, and sales work to accomplish.

I’m almost at a point I can return to some technical work to get more of my libraries over to AS3.   I will be posting as I get deeper into this…


My Virtual Trade Show Evaluation Cut Short

February 8, 2009

Just as I was getting into some of the demos with the vendors, the group that had wanted me to review them pulled back their desire to do a show, so they said to put this on hold.  I had gotten about half way through the vendor demos so I did get a chance to see some interesting information, but unfortunately I can’t spend the time now to do a thorough evaluation (too many other pressures).

I hope to return to it within the next few months.  I think the group I was doing this for were not expecting costs to start in the $20K or $30K range, so it was a wake-up call (not to mention that I would bet costs would be higher than that).

Interestingly, I was surprised by the savviness of this group to recognize what they wanted even if they have never participated in a virtual trade show. Instead of merely saying that they wanted something like a live, on-site show (with presentations, booths, etc.), they were able to identify that they really wanted something that was an extension of their society/group web site or office, essentially providing an on-demand access to a group of vendors/exhibitors.  Instead of thinking about a show once or twice a year, I think they were honing in on one of the efficiencies of the virtual trade show venue, that is the ability to collect a variety of companies/vendors for the benefit of the society/group’s customers (the members), for interaction in a real-time way.  I see that some of the trade show vendors are thinking along the lines of integrating trade show processes into day-to-day business operations.  I believe it is a smart move to project how the pieces of a virtual trade show (presentation, exhibit hall/vendor functionality, resource center, etc.) might be organized and assembled in different ways to support specific efficiencies, rather than being forced into a one-size-fits-all virtual trade show format.

Some Impressions Based on How Far I Got

In general, I believe there is a lot of similar functionality that really only can be evaluated during actual shows–everyone talks about the virtues of their platform, but I believe you need to see it under stress to find out how well they hold true.  For example, I attended one show in which I consistently got disconnected and/or could not load content reliably.  Admittedly, I have an internet connection barely better than tin cans and string (thanks, Verizon, which says my speeds meet min. limits, and yet you continue to tease me with your FiOS commercials not available in my area).  However, with such a situation, what better time to find out about in-show customer support?

Which brings me to customer support.  Virtually all of the vendors claimed they had great support, and that was something distinctive.  It was amusing because they all claimed it as distinctive.  Clearly this is a critical factor — what kind of support do you get before the show, to help make the show a success, what kind of support do your vendors get, what support do you get in-show, post-show, etc.  This is a hard one to evaluate, but I would say that typical business procedures should help — get references you can speak with.  I think it is essential to have marketing and technical support before, during, and after the show, even if costs extra.

In general, some vendors have a lot about their platform online, and some very little.  In the cases of very little, I found out that it usually is a business decision not to post more.  I can certainly understand that there is no need to tip off competitors about interesting developments or features, but I didn’t see any one feature that makes the platform clearly better than the others.  In the current age of Internet-based research, having less info on the site I think ultimately hurts the platform vendor–there probably isn’t really a secret feature that the competition doesn’t know about.

That having been said, one important factor will be determining if you want your exhibitors to have their own editing abilities (InXpo, Unisfair, iConGo) or turn it over to the platform vendor (ON24, DesignReactor).  Important Caveat: ON24 did say they are developing more self-service features, and I didn’t really get a chance to speak with the DesignReactor group about this area.

One thing I regret not getting a chance to delve into further is the potential for e-Commerce in these shows.  If a platform had any e-Commerce features, it would be linking out somewhere to a shopping cart or other hand-wavy integration.  I don’t think there is an easy answer here, but I can see that the ability to conduct business through a show, in a way that could integrate with an exhibitor’s online e-commerce functionality, or provide something during the period of the show, would make for an interesting competitive feature.  The downside is that this may be an abyss, trying to grasp at something concrete when e-commerce functionality (specific way in which inventory, sales, etc. are processed) is typically not common across vendors.


How to Embed Almost Anything in your Website

January 8, 2009

I just saw  a super posting from Digital Inspiration’s Amit Agarwal about how to embed different types of content easily on a web site.  The automatic function to create a blog entry seemed to have failed, so I have to do it manually:

http://www.labnol.org/internet/how-to-embed-in-html-webpages/6365/


About to start virtual trade show demos

January 5, 2009

A couple of other urgent work projects took me away for a bit from the virtual trade show evaluation, but I’ve been gearing up to talk with the virtual trade show vendors.

In the process, I’ve refined my questions and added a few, so here is the final list I came up with.  I’ve told the vendors that I don’t want them to fill it out, I just want to use it as an overall guide to help steer the conversation/demo.  Of course the overall questions are the most important

Overall Questions
•    What do you feel are distinctive characteristics/features of your platform or company?
•    How long have you been hosting virtual trade shows?
•    Approximately how many of your customers have come back to host a second or subsequent show with you?
•    What is the overall process for coordination once you begin working with a client?
•    In general, what aspects of the show do you handle and what do you require of your clients?
•    How do you help steer clients to get the most value from their show, before, during, and after?
•    Do you have any kind of user groups/networks for organizers to share experiences?
•    Are there any upcoming shows in which we can take a look?
•    Please provide two references.

Detailed Questions
(not necessarily in order, I just put numbers to have a point of reference)
1. Show Administration
•    What types of tools are available for managing vendors, speakers, attendees?
•    Are non-English languages supported, and how is it determined on show, vendor, speaker, or attendee basis?
2. Vendor/Exhibitor Administration/Setup
•    Variety of booth types
•    What is platform for customizing booths?
•    Can the booth integrate Adobe Flash?
o    If so, which versions (ActionScript 2 or ActionScript 3)?
o    Can Flash extensions access booth features, such as initiate Chats, open documents
•    What types of videos and/or multimedia can be used?
•    What, if any, e-Commerce facilities/functionality are available?
•    What formats are acceptable for the booth (contents)?
3. Speaker Administration
•    Can talks be done as live streaming?
•    Can talks be done as pre-recorded broadcasts?
•    Are Q&A’s (following) sessions all text chat, or mixed (text/audio/webcam)?
•    Are Q&A’s recorded for later use/review?
•    Can the speaker share his or her desktop, or other WebEx-type functionality (white boards, polls, etc.)?
•    Can the speaker browse to web sites or other content while allowing the participants to interact with that content?
•    Can audience members speak (audio) or take the microphone?
•    What technical requirements are there for the speaker to conduct a presentation?
•    What are the recommended specs for speaker equipment?
•    What formats are acceptable?
•    Can there be multiple speakers/presenters, and from different locations?
4. Attendee Administration
•    Platforms (Win/Mac/Linux)?
•    Require any browser plug-in?
•    Browser or other compatibilities (e.g., Windows Media, etc.)
•    How intrusive is sign-up?
•    How intrusive is login?
5. Talks/Presentations
•    What browser and software does an attendee need to participate?
•    What kind of support is given during the conference for attendee problems?
6. Exhibit Hall
•    How does a participant “see” the possible booths or vendors?
•    Are there booths of different sizes?
•    Do booths have different areas, or just one view?
•    What kind of interaction can an attendee have with a sales/booth rep?
•    What kind of tracking is kept for an attendee?
7. Attendee Networking
•    Does it integrate with networking after the show?
•    How do attendees network?
•    Is there a place like a lounge where attendees can network?
•    Why does an attendee want to hang out in the lounge?
8. Reporting/Tracking
•    What kind of reporting is done, and how is that accessed?
•    Can extensions or loaded content hook into tracking (read/write)?
9. Support
•    What kind of support is available before the show, for
o    Vendors
o    Speakers
o    Show Organizer
•    What kind of support is available during the show, for the same groups as above, as well as Participants/Visitors?
10. Pricing/Costs
•    Pricing/cost structure/options
11. Beyond the Show
•    What are the archival capabilities for talks, exhibit hall, etc.
•    How can the show creators get value after the show?
•    How can exhibitors get value after the show?
•    How do participants get value after the show, for example, social networking?


Looking for “Help”

December 18, 2008

Ha, ha, what a clever title, a pun about Flash Help.  What a comic genius.

If I’ve spoken with you in the past 2 weeks, and you’ve heard the term Flash (even not in the Macromedia/Adobe context), I’ve probably asked you the question that has been tormenting me: what happened to Flash Help in CS4, and specifically, the help files that third-party extensions (like my components) add to Flash?

If you haven’t seen Help inside CS4, Adobe moved the default Help to its LiveDocs, so when you open the Help screen, Flash opens a browser and points you to the LiveDocs page.  On the surface, I think there is a good idea there: to keep the documentation as up-to-date as possible.  Seems like a great idea that should have been refined as an option through alpha and beta testing.

In Flash CS3 and prior versions, a component or extension developer could add Help books and documentation when the user installed the extension.  Now that the Help by default goes to Adobe’s site, that won’t be possible.  So surely Adobe anticipated this (or a tester saw this coming)?

Apparently not.  Several people have shown how to turn off the Web help and use the local file system (BTW, open Windows > Other Panels > Connections, then in the top right corner, click on the icon and choose the Offline Options entry, and follow the text).  However, even when Flash uses the local help files, our dear extensions’ help files are not there.

I figured that I must have been missing something, surely something as big as dropping third-party help files would have been picked up by this time.  So I went around the web looking for discussions about the new Help.  As expected, the results were not particularly complimentary.  Here are three links that pretty much have most of the responses from other places this comes up:

I received word from Adobe recently that I was correct about the third-party help disappearing (I just thought I hadn’t looked hard enough, a plausible explanation).  They say that this item is back on the radar and so they will try to think of what can be done.  Stay tuned, I will update this post as I find out more!


Formulating a Framework for Interpreting Show Features

December 7, 2008

I’ve now made contact with most of the virtual trade show vendors, and of course all were eager to demonstrate their platforms.  Most have some type of event occurring around now, so the best thing to do is to visit them during those events.  I know firsthand that there is a big difference seeing the features in a sterile environment vs. seeing the actual flow of people and their use of the platform through an event.

Since the show is going to be in mid-2009, perhaps June-ish, I know I need to get materials together for a decision very soon.  The association needs time to evaluate my recommendations and then spread the word to their base.  This association is fortunate because it is a pretty tight group (they know their vendors and their attendees, and both are very motivated to exhibit and attend).  It seems like 5-6 months is a minimum amount of time before the show to be getting in gear, even for this tight group.

It became clear to me that, rather than go from demo to demo initially, I should put together a basic list of feature areas, and then engage the vendors.  I don’t mean to create an RFP, especially before seeing more demos, because I also have firsthand experience as a potential bidder knowing what a pain it is to respond to RFP’s (and, although it’s a bit cynical, many times RFP’s are used really to justify the author’s selection not a real competition).

So here are my initial thoughts.  I will revise them over the coming days as a I review web site materials from the vendors.  I don’t expect to dump them on vendors and expect the vendors to answer — I figure I can review their web sites to get a better picture of their platform, start filling out the various areas, then double-check my observations with the vendors.
Overall
•    Are non-English languages supported, and how is it determined on show, vendor, speaker, or attendee basis?

Show Administration
•    What types of tools are available for managing vendors, speakers, attendees?

Vendor/Exhibitor Administration/Setup
•    Variety of booth types
•    What is platform for customizing booths?
•    Can the booth integrate Adobe Flash?
o    If so, which versions (ActionScript 2 or ActionScript 3)?
o    Can Flash extensions access booth features, such as initiate Chats, open documents
•    What types of videos and/or multimedia can be used?
•    Any e-Commerce facilities/functionality?
•    What formats are acceptable for the booth?

Speaker Administration
•    Is there live streaming?
•    Is there pre-recorded broadcasts?
•    Are Q&A’s (following) sessions all text chat, or mixed?
•    Are Q&A’s recorded for later use/review?
•    Can the speaker share his or her desktop, or other WebEx-type functionality (white boards, polls, etc.)?
•    Can audience members speak (audio) or take the microphone?
•    What does a speaker have to prepare o
•    What formats are acceptable?
•    Can there be multiple speakers/presenters, and from different locations?

Attendee Administration
•    Platforms (Win/Mac/Linux)?
•    Require any browser plug-in?
•    Browser or other compatibilities (e.g., Windows Media, etc.)
•    How intrusive is sign-up?
•    How intrusive is login?

Talks/Presentations
•    What browser and software does an attendee need to participate?
•    What kind of support is given during the conference for attendee problems?

Exhibit Hall
•    How does a participant “see” the possible booths or vendors?
•    Are there booths of different sizes?
•    What kind of interaction can an attendee have with a sales/booth rep?
•    What kind of tracking is kept for an attendee?

Attendee Networking
•    Does it integrate with networking after the show?
•    How do attendees network?
•    Is there a place like a lounge where attendees can network?
•    Why does an attendee want to hang out in the lounge?

Reporting/Tracking
•    What kind of reporting is done, and how is that accessed?
•    Can extensions or loaded content hook into tracking (read/write)?

Support
•    What kind of support is available before the show, for
o    Vendors
o    Speakers
o    Show Organizer
•    What kind of support is available during the show, for the same groups as above, as well as Participants/Visitors?

Pricing/Costs
•    Pricing/cost structure

Beyond the Show
•    How can the show creators get value after the show?
•    How can exhibitors get value after the show?
•    How do participants get value after the show, for example, social networking?

Other Features
•    ?